CanaryObservatory
 
Human behavior · Instrument dossier

Business Jets Airborne

Every 30 minutes the observatory counts the business jets that ADS-B receivers can see in the air, worldwide. The cohort is a fixed list of business-jet type codes (Citation, Gulfstream, Global, Challenger, Falcon, Phenom, Learjet and others). People with access to private jets can move quickly and early. A surge well above the normal count for that hour of the week is a public, hard-to-stage trace of many people deciding to fly at once.

Current reading

891 business jets observed airborne at the latest collection. Not enough data yet for a historical comparison.

Reading time:

Global, limited to where volunteer receivers are (dense in North America and Europe, thin over oceans and parts of Africa and Asia).

Collector availability
Delayed
Collection freshness
Last successful collection . Collection is delayed; this is not a live reading.

Historical comparison

Not enough data yet to draw a series in this range. History begins when collection begins.

Interpretation

Not enough data yet. The available history cannot establish whether this reading is typical or unusual.

What movement could mean
  • A count well above the same hour of earlier weeks
  • A rise concentrated in long-range types (Global, Gulfstream G650/G700)

Not established. This is an anomaly monitor for a public flight signal, not proof of intent. Past spikes are kept in the archive so false alarms stay visible. Source-reported severity, statistical deviation and real-world risk are different questions. This reading does not independently support a hypothesis about intent or cause.

Evidence and limitations

Cadence and latency
Collection is scheduled every 30 minutes. Collection cadence is not source latency; no measured end-to-end latency is provided here. Source publication and revisions can delay what is visible.
Known false-positive patterns
  • Holidays and major events (Super Bowl, Davos, Art Basel)
  • Receiver network changes — more feeders means more jets seen
  • Weather closures that shift traffic into a different hour
Coverage and blind spots
  • Type-based: a business-jet type is not proof of private ownership, who is on board, or why they are flying.
  • Operators can block or hide their aircraft from public trackers; those are invisible here.
  • The receiver network keeps growing, so counts drift upward slowly over months.
  • Individual aircraft are not stored; only counts and a by-model breakdown are kept.

The history contains stored count snapshots, not individual aircraft positions or flight tracks. Live aviation positions shown elsewhere are not stored history.

Technical detail
Measurement definition
Each observation is one snapshot: the number of aircraft of a business-jet type with a live position and an in-flight altitude. Aircraft flagged military are excluded.
Raw metric
airborne_bizjets
Method
Queries adsb.lol for every business-jet type code, keeps aircraft that are airborne, removes military-flagged aircraft and duplicates, and stores the count. Compared with the same half-hour of the week in earlier weeks.
Stored observations
1

Normal versus unusual

A baseline cannot yet be established. The observatory needs more history before it can say what "normal" looks like for this signal, so no anomaly score is shown.

0 historical samples so far · Latest snapshot vs. the same half-hour of the week (±30 min) in earlier weeks; std floored at √mean; small absolute excess ignored

Source severity

The label the publishing agency assigns (e.g. NWS 'Severe'). Shown verbatim.

Statistical anomaly

How far today's value sits from this signal's own history. Says nothing about consequences.

Real-world risk

A judgment the observatory does not make. Consult official sources for safety decisions.

Airborne by model

latest snapshot ·
  • Embraer Phenom 300 E55P
    96
  • Cessna Citation Latitude C68A
    70
  • Cessna Citation Excel/XLS C56X
    65
  • Bombardier Challenger 350 CL35
    43
  • Cessna Citation CJ3 C25B
    41
  • Bombardier Challenger 600 series CL60
    41
  • Cessna Citation CJ2 C25A
    34
  • Bombardier Challenger 300 CL30
    30
  • Hawker 800/850XP H25B
    27
  • Embraer Praetor 500/Legacy 450 E545
    26
  • Bombardier Global Express/6000 GLEX
    24
  • Gulfstream IV GLF4
    22
  • Cessna Citation V/Ultra/Encore C560
    21
  • Pilatus PC-24 PC24
    20
  • Dassault Falcon 2000 F2TH
    19
  • Cessna Citation CJ4 C25C
    18
  • Cessna Citation Sovereign C680
    18
  • Beechjet 400 / Hawker 400XP BE40
    17
  • Embraer Praetor 600/Legacy 500 E550
    16
  • Bombardier Global 7500 GL7T
    15
  • Gulfstream G650 GLF6
    15
  • Learjet 45 LJ45
    15
  • Learjet 60 LJ60
    15
  • Cessna Citation X C750
    13
  • Cessna Citation Longitude C700
    12
  • Gulfstream V/G550 GLF5
    12
  • Cessna Citation II/Bravo C550
    11
  • Dassault Falcon 50 FA50
    10
  • Gulfstream G280 G280
    10
  • Bombardier Global 5000/5500 GL5T
    9

Observations in range

Recent collection runs

  • · success · 2 stored

How this works

The observatory watches a fixed group of business-jet types and asks one question: is the number in the air right now unusual for this time of the week? It does not track all aircraft.

Every 30 minutes it asks the adsb.lol volunteer receiver network for every aircraft of those types, keeps the ones with a live position and an in-flight altitude, and drops anything flagged military. The count and a breakdown by model are stored; the individual aircraft are not.

'Normal' is the count at the same half-hour of the week in earlier weeks. Monday 9am is compared with earlier Monday 9ams, not with Sunday 3am. Until three weeks of history exist, no unusual/normal judgement is shown.

The size of the difference is measured against how much that half-hour usually varies, and very small differences are ignored even when the usual count is small.

The live map positions come straight from the same source when you open the map. They are exact transponder positions, refreshed on request, and never stored.

FAQ

Is this trying to detect something already happening?
No. The useful signal would be earlier behaviour: people acting on information before it becomes public.
What counts as a business jet here?
Aircraft whose ICAO type code is on a fixed list of business-jet families. It excludes airliners, regional jets and anything the source flags as military. It is a practical type list, not proof of private ownership.
Does a high reading mean something bad is coming?
No. It means the count is well above normal for that time of week. Holidays, big events, a growing receiver network and data glitches can all cause it.
Why not use news or prediction markets?
They are worth reading alongside this. Flight counts are useful because they are measured continuously, in the same way, every half-hour.