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Environment · Instrument dossier

Earthquake Activity

Every earthquake of magnitude 2.5 or greater reported by the USGS real-time feeds, with location, depth and event time. Large or clustered earthquakes can disrupt infrastructure, supply chains and populations. Unusual swarms sometimes accompany volcanic unrest.

Current reading

44 earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or greater in the last 24 hours, against an expected count of about 64.8.

Reading time:

Global (USGS network; small events are detected more reliably in the US).

Collector availability
Live
Collection freshness
Last successful collection .

Historical comparison

Events ≥ M2.5 per UTC day · gaps = unknown coverage or incomplete interval
Magnitude of each event

Interpretation

The latest assessed reading is within the detector’s expected pattern. This does not establish that real-world conditions are safe.

What movement could mean
  • A major earthquake and its aftershock sequence
  • A volcanic or induced-seismicity swarm

Earthquake counts are not predictive of other world events. This detector is descriptive. Source-reported severity, statistical deviation and real-world risk are different questions. This reading does not independently support a hypothesis about intent or cause.

Evidence and limitations

Cadence and latency
Collection is scheduled every 30 minutes. Collection cadence is not source latency; no measured end-to-end latency is provided here. Source publication and revisions can delay what is visible.
Known false-positive patterns
  • Aftershocks of a single known event inflate counts
  • Network changes affect detection
Coverage and blind spots
  • Magnitudes and locations are revised by USGS after initial publication.
  • Detection completeness varies by region; outside the US, small events are under-reported.
  • Aftershock sequences make daily counts strongly non-independent.
Technical detail
Measurement definition
Each observation is one USGS event. The value is the reported magnitude. The anomaly assessment counts events ≥ M2.5 in the trailing 24 hours.
Raw metric
daily_count_m25
Method
The collector reads the 2.5_week feed on every run and backfills from the 2.5_month feed when history is short. Events are upserted by USGS event id, so magnitude revisions update the existing record instead of creating duplicates.
Stored observations
1,979

Normal versus unusual

Current
44
Expected (mean)
64.8
Std. deviation
17.8
z-score
-1.17

Trailing-24h count vs. mean/std of completed UTC days (std floored at √mean) · 29 samples · rolling-z/1.0 · computed

Source severity

The label the publishing agency assigns (e.g. NWS 'Severe'). Shown verbatim.

Statistical anomaly

How far today's value sits from this signal's own history. Says nothing about consequences.

Real-world risk

A judgment the observatory does not make. Consult official sources for safety decisions.

Observations in range

Recent collection runs

  • · success · 327 stored
  • · success · 327 stored
  • · failed · 0 stored · earthquake.usgs.gov responded 403
  • · failed · 0 stored · earthquake.usgs.gov responded 403
  • · success · 327 stored
  • · success · 327 stored
  • · failed · 0 stored · earthquake.usgs.gov responded 403
  • · failed · 0 stored · Interrupted before finishing (no result recorded)
  • · success · 331 stored
  • · success · 330 stored
  • · success · 330 stored
  • · success · 330 stored

How this works

We read the US Geological Survey's public earthquake feed every 30 minutes and keep every quake of magnitude 2.5 or more, worldwide. Each quake is stored once under its USGS id; when USGS revises a magnitude or location, our copy is updated rather than duplicated.

The number we watch is how many quakes happened in the last 24 hours. "Normal" is the average of earlier full days (at least 14). Earthquakes have no weekly rhythm, so every day is compared with every other day.

Limits: one big quake brings hundreds of aftershocks, so a high count usually means one event, not many. Small quakes outside the US are often missed by the network.

FAQ

Does a busy day mean a big quake is coming?
No. Earthquake counts don't forecast earthquakes or anything else. This signal describes what already happened.
Why is the count high after one large quake?
Aftershocks. They are counted individually, because that is how USGS reports them.
Why M2.5?
Below that, detection depends heavily on how many sensors a region has, so counts would mostly measure the network.